Thursday, November 06, 2008
Do We Still Have A Shot?
Now that Utah's victory over TCU is in the books, the picture is a bit clearer for the BCS and BYU. The big Nov. 22 BYU-Utah game we've been talking about all season just got bigger.
Of course, if Utah wins the BYU game, they go to a BCS bowl. They'd be ranked near the middle of the top ten in the BCS standings and no other non-BCS team could pass them. I'm all about BCS-busting, but frankly I'd rather it not be Utah. Especially since Utah has already done it and BYU hasn't.
What is interesting is what will happen if BYU wins out. A big road win over a top-10 foe (one which proved against TCU that it belongs) would be huge for BYU. There would be a three-way tie for the Mountain West championship, as BYU, Utah, and TCU would all have gone 1-1 against each other. But what matters is the BCS standings.
I think BYU still has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl if:
1) BYU wins out, AND
2) Either of the following happens:
a) Boise State loses a game, OR
b) Both of the following happen:
I) Ohio State loses a game AND
II) Oregon State loses a game.
If Boise loses, the Cougars would rise above them and quite possibly be the top-ranked non-BCS team once again. The only question would be where TCU would fall, but as all college football programs know, if you're going to lose, it's best to lose early. Plus, TCU now has two total losses. I could see a one-loss non-BCS BCS-buster, but not a two-loss one.
Problem is, Boise probably isn't going to lose (plus, I like Boise State, so I don't want to root for that to happen). So we turn our hopes to the BCS conferences for some help. As I explained recently, if the Big Ten finishes with only one team in the top 14 of the BCS standings (i.e. Penn State), then there won't be enough eligible BCS-conference teams to fill all four at-large spots for BCS bowls, given the mediocrity of the Pac-10, ACC, and Big East. That means two BCS-busters, and BYU could make it along with Boise. But I harbor no delusions that any bowl game, BCS or not, would voluntarily choose BYU when Ohio State is available.
Why do I mention Oregon State, an unranked 5-3 team? Because if they don't lose, they win the Pac-10 with one conference loss by virtue of their tiebreaking win over USC. Oregon State would then go to the Rose Bowl and USC would certainly be picked over BYU (or any other team at all for that matter) as a BCS at-large.
You know, sometimes, deep down in my heart, I really don't wish that they would institute a playoff. This BCS mess is so messy, it's kinda fun sometimes.
Moral of the story: Go BYU, and Boo to any team named OSU.*
* Apologies to Oklahoma State, but I mean you too. Recently I was wishing you in the title game, but after your loss to Texas and Texas Tech's win, my new, more realistic hope, is that Texas Tech gets to the title game. That means they must defeat Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Of course, if Utah wins the BYU game, they go to a BCS bowl. They'd be ranked near the middle of the top ten in the BCS standings and no other non-BCS team could pass them. I'm all about BCS-busting, but frankly I'd rather it not be Utah. Especially since Utah has already done it and BYU hasn't.
What is interesting is what will happen if BYU wins out. A big road win over a top-10 foe (one which proved against TCU that it belongs) would be huge for BYU. There would be a three-way tie for the Mountain West championship, as BYU, Utah, and TCU would all have gone 1-1 against each other. But what matters is the BCS standings.
I think BYU still has a legitimate shot at a BCS bowl if:
1) BYU wins out, AND
2) Either of the following happens:
a) Boise State loses a game, OR
b) Both of the following happen:
I) Ohio State loses a game AND
II) Oregon State loses a game.
If Boise loses, the Cougars would rise above them and quite possibly be the top-ranked non-BCS team once again. The only question would be where TCU would fall, but as all college football programs know, if you're going to lose, it's best to lose early. Plus, TCU now has two total losses. I could see a one-loss non-BCS BCS-buster, but not a two-loss one.
Problem is, Boise probably isn't going to lose (plus, I like Boise State, so I don't want to root for that to happen). So we turn our hopes to the BCS conferences for some help. As I explained recently, if the Big Ten finishes with only one team in the top 14 of the BCS standings (i.e. Penn State), then there won't be enough eligible BCS-conference teams to fill all four at-large spots for BCS bowls, given the mediocrity of the Pac-10, ACC, and Big East. That means two BCS-busters, and BYU could make it along with Boise. But I harbor no delusions that any bowl game, BCS or not, would voluntarily choose BYU when Ohio State is available.
Why do I mention Oregon State, an unranked 5-3 team? Because if they don't lose, they win the Pac-10 with one conference loss by virtue of their tiebreaking win over USC. Oregon State would then go to the Rose Bowl and USC would certainly be picked over BYU (or any other team at all for that matter) as a BCS at-large.
You know, sometimes, deep down in my heart, I really don't wish that they would institute a playoff. This BCS mess is so messy, it's kinda fun sometimes.
Moral of the story: Go BYU, and Boo to any team named OSU.*
* Apologies to Oklahoma State, but I mean you too. Recently I was wishing you in the title game, but after your loss to Texas and Texas Tech's win, my new, more realistic hope, is that Texas Tech gets to the title game. That means they must defeat Oklahoma State on Saturday.
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