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Sunday, August 22, 2010

The First College Football Post of 2010 

It's been an interesting summer for college football fans like myself, but it never got more interesting than this past week when rumors started circulating on Wednesday that BYU was about to go independent in football and join the WAC in its other sports. I was trying to work from home at the time, and glanced at the headline, and my productivity dropped off steeply at that point. But the plan unraveled when the MWC, afraid of losing its cash cow, invited Fresno State and Nevada, who promptly accepted. It appears they first invited Utah State, but they turned the offer down because just last week the eight WAC schools had gotten together and pledged loyalty to one another, even going so far as to sign a contract with a $5 million penalty for leaving. I guess that didn't stop Fresno and Nevada. This leaves the WAC with six teams, and on the verge of death. I, like everyone else, have been thinking a lot about what might happen.

The first question is what BYU is going to do. It sounds like they're pretty serious about their intent to go independent, to leverage their national audience and their high-tech broadcast facilities and their already-on-60-million-people's-TVs cable network (something Texas can only dream of at this point). But they need somewhere for their other sports. The only serious options I've heard are a revived WAC, the MWC itself, or the West Coast Conference, which doesn't play football anyway, along with the likes of Gonzaga, Pepperdine, and St. Mary's.

A lot of the negative commentary I've seen, particularly from national writers, is that BYU is delusional if it thinks this is the way to a national championship. And they're right. This is not the way to a national championship, or even to better access to the BCS. The thing that people don't understand is that this is mostly about exposure. BYU is currently languishing on the Mtn., a stupid little cable channel that was the sole reason I got DirecTV a couple of years ago, but which I really don't enjoy. Not only is it not available to very many Americans, its production values are horrible. They might as well not be playing for all the exposure they get on the Mtn. When you're not on TV, you practically don't exist. I truly believe one of the reasons Boise State is doing so well in national perceptions lately is that they've benefitted from the WAC's contract with ESPN. They were on TV several times last season. They're in for a rude awakening when they join the MWC next year.

BYU is an arm of the LDS Church, and because of that, everything it does needs to be somehow related to the mission of the Church. The football program brings a lot of exposure to the university and the church, and highlights the clean lifestyles these young men live. It's a great public relations tool, if not a missionary tool. BYU just wants to get the football team out in front of more people to make this mission more successful.

And of course, there is the element of money. I would guess that exposure is the number one reason for going independent, but money is number two. BYU makes a paltry $1.5 million a year from the Mtn. TV deal. It has apparently talked to ESPN about brokering three or four games a year for an independent BYU, paying out about $1 million per game. That way, BYU doesn't even have to run advertising on BYUTV to show the other games - they're still way ahead of where they are in the MWC. ESPN likes BYU - we bring in ratings. And big-time teams will come play BYU if they're on ESPN. The Oklahoma and Tulane games last year were both brokered by ESPN just as much as they were by the schools' athletic departments.

The main problems I see with the idea of independence are 1) scheduling, and 2) bowl games. The proposed deal with the WAC took a lot of the pressure off of scheduling, as BYU would have agreed to play four to six WAC teams each year (including Utah State, who they were playing every year anyway). Add in an annual game with Utah, perhaps a new series with Notre Dame (they've said it would definitely be a possibility, especially late in the season when independents have a tough time finding opponents because everyone's thick into their conference schedules), and consider the fact that we've already got a four-game series lined up with Boise State and a brand new three-game series with Texas*, and you've only got two to four more games to find. Certainly there will be two to four Pac-12, Big 12, or other teams willing to play BYU - especially if it's on ESPN. I would hope that they would talk to Navy, one of the other independents, for a regular series, because I want to be able to see the Cougs in Annapolis.

As for bowl games, that would be more problematic. They'd probably have to scrape around for leftovers or perhaps even be shut out of a bowl for the first year or two, before they could line something up with a bowl game like Notre Dame, Army, and Navy have done. I would support getting in with pretty much any bowl game in California, Arizona, or Texas, especially the Holiday Bowl. Wouldn't that be a great venue to return to?

As things sit now, here are a couple of scenarios that I could see happening:

1. BYU stays put in all sports. With BYU, Fresno State, and Nevada, the MWC will have 11 teams. There's a decent chance they might make a grab for one more to be able to have a championship game (perhaps Houston, or, if they're lucky, Utah State). BYU would be fine, but they'd be stuck in that awful TV deal, and the MWC with that lineup isn't going to become a BCS conference. So basically things would continue in the decent-but-not-nearly-as-good-as-they-could-be way they are now.

2. The WAC folds. This might happen regardless of what BYU does. I still have a soft spot in my heart for the WAC, so I'll be sad to see it go. But it only has six teams now, and some of them are looking elsewhere. It appears that Utah State is trying to get a mulligan on its turn-down of the MWC (apparently the $5 million penalty doesn't apply now that FSU and UNR left). If I'm Louisiana Tech, I'm calling up C-USA and the Sun Belt so I don't have to be linked to all these western schools anymore. Hawaii is rumored to be pondering its own independence, banking on a lot of teams wanting to come to the islands in order to get that revenue-generating 13th regular-season game. They could have an 8- or 9-game home schedule. One scenario I saw had BYU playing AT Hawaii every year. Works for them because they don't have to travel; works for us because we recruit in Polynesia and we'd get that 13th game every year (of course, then we'd have to find someone to fill it). New Mexico State, Idaho, and San Jose State appear to be left out in the lurch. I don't know what will befall them if the WAC folds. The MWC probably won't take them.

3. BYU goes independent and joins the WCC in all other sports. Rumor has it the WCC wants BYU. We fit in culturally, as a religious school - they probably wouldn't have a problem with BYU's no-Sunday-play rule like the Pac-12 or Big 12. But athletically, I could see the Gonzaga or St. Mary's men's basketball teams beating BYU every now and then, but other than that, would any other BYU team lose a single conference game ever? I think BYU would get tired of pounding the likes of San Diego and Portland, and those guys would get tired of getting pounded. Plus, it knocks BYU's prestige down a little. I once thought this was a good idea, but I'm turning against it.

4. BYU goes independent in football and stays in the MWC for everything else. I don't know if this is a viable option, as the MWC has tight control over TV rights, and one of the reasons for independence was to get that control back in BYU's hands. The WAC reportedly was offering BYU free reign with that. Plus, now that BYU has told everyone it's interested in leaving, there may be a bit of bad blood (especially from TCU, who seems to hate BYU beyond reason for no reason). Would they want to keep us? It would be good for the other sports, and if we could arrange to play four to six MWC teams a year in football (I'd vote for CSU, UNM, and Wyoming, just to keep those really old relationships alive), that would be great. But I don't see this one happening.

5. The WAC expands and BYU goes there in non-football sports. This one might have legs, but I don't know where the WAC can pick up additional teams. It appears the best candidates right now are all 1-AA schools like Texas State, UT-San Antonio, and Montana. That's not the most prestigious thing you could do, and it's not like the world needs more "have-nots" in the world of big-time football, but if it keeps the conference alive, then I guess it's OK.

My personal hope is that the WAC nabs New Mexico and San Diego State. BYU wins because the WAC could take their other teams, and that would increase the WAC's basketball cred, which is great for BYU because we'd be there mostly for the basketball. The WAC wins because it gets to stay alive, and it would give SJSU and NMSU in-state in-conference rivals in the WAC. The MWC wins because the thing that is most likely to keep it from becoming a BCS conference when the evaluation period is up in two years isn't the fact that the top teams aren't good enough; it's the fact that the bottom teams are really really lousy. SDSU and UNM are the two worst teams in the MWC in football, so jettisoning them is actually in the MWC's BCS interests. (And it doesn't really hurt the WAC in that regard, because, let's face it, they were never in the running to become a BCS conference, even when Boise State was on board.) The only problem is that I can't see why SDSU and UNM would do it, except maybe to get those in-state rivals (but I'm not sure how much they want them) or to stay with BYU. But let's try to make this happen. It's way better than Texas State.

6. BYU convinces the Big 12 to let it join for non-football sports. This is a total pipe dream, but wouldn't it be cool? They wouldn't need to intrude on the delicate revenue-sharing balance the Big 12 struck this summer to preserve its own existence, because they wouldn't be involved in football. (But if they could get a commitment for a certain number of games a year, that would be just awesome.) Plus, when the time comes that Texas decides to do something different (like maybe follow BYU's example and strike out on its own as an independent) and the Big 12 implodes, or when they realize that it's weird to have a conference called the "Big 12" when there are only 10 teams in it and they look to expand, BYU is already sitting right there. I suspect part of BYU's motivation for independence in the first place was to audition for a place in the Big 12. If they can show them how valuable a media property BYU is just by itself, then a big-time conference can't pass that up. Here's betting it works. I bet if BYU goes independent in 2011, they'll be part of a BCS conference (probably the Big 12, but it might be some new one rising from the dust of the demise of the Big 12, and it might even be the Pac-16 when that happens) by 2016.

7. Some major non-BCS realignment happens. With the WAC in disarray, and with the MWC allegedly talking to C-USA about an inter-league championship game for an automatic BCS spot (not going to happen), the ripples are not going to stay in the far west. I could see major conference realignment, with all sorts of teams joining up and moving around until everyone has the home they think they want. I was going to try to post an imagined scenario, but it's just too hard to predict. I suspect not even the MAC will remain completely unscathed by the ramifications of BYU's independence. C-USA and the Sun Belt definitely will, I think.

**

Well, those are about all the thoughts I have for now. I'm excited to watch this play out. I hope it all works out for the best for BYU, and that we can get the exposure and results we want. I wish the best for Utah State too, after their lobbying for BYU within the WAC and their integrity to stick to their commitments. I will never cheer for Fresno State or Nevada to win another game, except maybe when they play teams from BCS conferences (my hatred of the BCS is still stronger than my newfound disgust with Fresno's and Nevada's backstabbing). And as long as I'm saying stuff like that, although it's not relevant to anything else in this post, I hope Utah beats all its nonconference opponents and finishes in the middle-to-bottom of the MWC this year (maybe 7-5 overall and 3-5 in-conference would be about right), then goes to the Rose Bowl next year as the Pac-12 champion, and then never ever wins another game against anyone ever from then on.

* I thought it was great that in the midst of all this uncertainty about BYU's future and its viability as an independent, there suddenly came this announcement that Texas and BYU have agreed to a home-and-home series in 2013 and 2014 to go along with their already-scheduled game in 2011. SDSU's coach said, "Who's going to play BYU now?" A couple of hours later, one of the country's premier football programs said, "We will." Classic. This proves that BYU will be able to schedule the big boys when it wants to.


Comments:
Probably as reasoned an analysis as any other I've seen. The 4-6 game WAC schedule wouldn't have been any worse than playing UNLV, SDSU, UNM, CSU, and Wyoming on a yearly basis, and if they replace the others with UT, Notre Dame and/or Navy late in the season and some PAC-10/12 teams, SOS is no worse than it is now...
 
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